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  • SATURDAY BETTING with Chris Scholtz at Rosehill/Caulfield – September 23

SATURDAY BETTING with Chris Scholtz at Rosehill/Caulfield – September 23

22 September, 2023
ROSEHILL (Good 4)

BEST PLAYS: PEACE OFFICER; AL AABIR; ESPIONA; WATERFORD

FOR VALUE: CELESTIAL LEGEND; KING COLORADO; ABLE WILLIE

 

MARKET GUIDE

RACE 1: (1) TAKE THE KITTY gets another chance to break her luckless run in Highways but she’s now a little skinny in the market. Better value in (6) ATMOSPHERIC ROCK and there is backing for the favourite’s stablemate (7) DESERT MIST. (9) SKYFORGER is big value.

RACE 2: The favourite (7) PEACE OFFICER made an impression winning first-up at Wyong and holds plenty of scope to improve off that effort. The smart players took the cream when they shopped early and there’s now no charity in his price but he does appeal as a solid anchor for exotic and multi bets.

RACE 3: Open raceEarly players are betting around the favourite (9) HOWGOODAREYOU as they see her as a risk over this distance. Expect degrees of support for most runners with (6) UNSPOKEN and (8) MARQUESS the most popular.

RACE 4: The unbeaten Zoustar colt (4) OZZMOSIS carries a boom and his price reflects this for his return from a spell.  He’ll be popular off an impressive trial win but no value. The market is respecting (5) CELESTIAL LEGEND, another promising 3YO resuming. He posted excellent figures winning at this course before a spell, running big sectionals and returning a rating worthy of a stakes class horse.

RACE 5: Expecting confident early support to continue for the progressive stayer (7) AL AABIR. Made good improvement last season and has been building nicely into his spring campaign in shorter races, suggesting the Waller skill with stayers will come to the fore over 2400m. Strong last start winner (6) ATHABASCAN also popular.

RACE 6: Tricky affair with betting moves key as the Waller stable dominates the top of the market with (1) ATISHU, (2) ESPIONA and (3) ZOUGOTCHA. The trio performed admirably in the Sheraco Stakes two weeks ago and while the market is leaning to ESPIONA on a firm dry deck, a case can easily be made for her stablemates.

RACE 7: The Waller-trained (7) WATERFORD is ideally placed to progress from his first-up placing as he boasts a big Rosehill record with excellent rating wins over this distance. Being second up all you want to see is confidence for him in the market place.

RACE 8: A cracking Golden Rose offers wide value. Favourite (3) CYLINDER has the current form and ratings but is a query over 1400m and Golden Slipper winner (2) SHINZO is easy to oppose taking on this strong race first-up from a wide gate with no 1400m form. Happy to anchor (1) MILITARIZE and (4) KING COLORADO in wide exotics as they have the right profile as G1 winners and strong credentials over the distance. Including (7) MORAVIA, (8) ENCAP, (10) NADAL and (13) CHARM STONE in exotics.

RACE 9: A good race for exotic players with a wide market away from the favourite (9) CHORLTON LANE. He rates to win but has to hold his form after a busy time switching between Sydney and Melbourne. Expect good support for a fresh (8) VIENNA PRINCESS to run well first-up from a spell. Good lead from the Godolphin stable to scratch the in-form (11) PEREILLE from an easier midweek race for this.

RACE 10: A host of chances so go as wide as you can in the last leg of the Quaddie! The tricky 1100m start makes barriers important so leaning to those with the softer draws. (17) ABLE WILLIE is capable of repeating his impressive last start win at Randwick. Others that rate well from kind draws include (6) TRISTATE, (8) PORTRAY, (13) OJAI and (16) XPRESSO. Track watchers are keen on the chances of (15) MARS MISSION first-up.

TRIAL STARS

  • OZMOSSIS: Unbeaten in trials and races, keeping that record intact when cruising to an impressive win in his latest trial at Rosehill on September 5.
  • KING COLORADO: Showed his class running home over the top of his rivals for a strong win in a 1045m heat at Randwick on September 8.

 

WHO’S HOT

  • NASH RAWILLER: Riding in super form and seems to get the last inch out of his mounts in tight finishes.
  • JOAO MOREIRA: Back in Sydney in hot form with a double at Warwick Farm during the week. Had his critics when he first rode in Australia but he’s come to terms with our conditions.
  • GAI WATERHOUSE/ADRIAN BOTT: Leading the Sydney premiership with 18 wins from 75 starters (24%). Fourth on the national training premiership with 32 wins from 133 starters, giving them the leading strike among the top five stables (24.10%).
  • MATT DUNN/DANNY WILLIAMS: Top country trainers with amazing strike rates in the Highway races. They have the numbers to do it again this week.

 

WHO’S NOT

  • KERRIN McEVOY: Has been out of touch with a win at Warwick Farm on Wednesday his first in the city from 63 metro rides since August 16.
  • JAY FORD: Just one city win from his last 50 rides over the last month.
CAULFIELD (Good 4)

BEST PLAYS: FIRST IMMORTAL, YELLOW CARD, AMENABLE

FOR VALUE: AMAZONIAN LASS

 

RACE 1: They have taken the short price about (5) SHOCK EM OVER. Ratings players have specked (12) STAR BUYER.

RACE 2: Hugh Bowman taking the ride on (2) FIRST IMMORTAL ensures he will be a popular favourite. His price reflects his spring potential. 

RACE 3: Big bets laid on RED CARD at a short price affirms the respect held for her impressive Sydney form. Will be costly for multi players if she is beaten. 

RACE 4: Weights and measures students will favour (11) YELLOW CARD to go one better after her close second at Caulfield but the market has sided with (8) OUR RED MORNING. Good trial has generated support for (10) SHE’S A CON. 

RACE 5: Another race where the market is respecting interstate form. Scone-trained (6) MIRACLE OF LOVE is popular but (13) AMAZONIAN LASS has the Sydney ratings to perform well at a price. Wider support for (8) APRILIA and (15) POIFECT. 

RACE 6: Video watchers will be all over (10) AMENABLE at short odds after a luckless effort at Caulfield. The market has opened up value opportunities with (1) BANDERSNATCH, (5) CORNER POCKET, (7) UMGAWA and (8) HERE TO SHOCK. 

RACE 7: Good betting race with (2) VEIGHT and (3) STEPARTY justifiably at the top of the market on form and potential – but it doesn’t end there. (5) SCHEELITE and (6) SCENTIFY will have admirers. 

RACE 8: The majority will put their faith in last start winner (3) FLOATING ARTIST to go on with it for the top stable. Value players will be looking for improvement from (5) GOLDMAN, (7) SHERAZ, (12) BERKELEY SQUARE, (14) THE SUMMIT and (16) FUTURE HISTORY. 

RACE 9: The favourite (2) ALLIGATOR BLOOD holds a big ratings edge but he could be soft in the market as he will be seen as vulnerable over 1800 metres. Betting support will also be a telling lead to the first-up chances of the impressive import (8) WITHOUT A FIGHT. (5) TUVALU, (9) RIGHT YOU ARE, (10) SOULCOMBE, (13) LINDERMANN and (14) ATTRITION are must inclusions in exotics. 

RACE 10: Race full of chances. No opinion. (4) MIDWEST best go in early betting.

 

TRIAL STARS: DOLPHIN SKIN; SHE’S A CON; POIFECT; NOT AN OPTION

 

WHO’S HOT 

  • DAMIAN LANE: Killing it with his form in the saddle. Gave his rivals a start but has opened up a big lead in the Melbourne premiership with 17 wins from 54 rides (29.30%).

 

WHO’S NOT 

  • PETER MOODY/KATHERINE COLEMAN: New training partnership is ticking over OK but they have the lowest strike rate among the top 20 trainers on the Melbourne metro premiership with five wins from 51 starters (9.8%).

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