NRL Round 23 Preview 

The Broncos are in freefall right now and only a fool would tip them up against anyone right now, not least against a team that has won five of their last six. However, they have won the last five encounters against the Cowboys which is putting me off tipping them up.

Regardless, I’m going on record to say I think the Cowboys will win this one. The men from New Queensland scored 78 points in their previous two matches, while the Broncos conceded 87 in their last two. Expect the Cowboys to trouble the scoreboard, meaning Murray Taulagi could make it three successive scoring games in a row. He comes into this one in sparkling form, having scored three tries against the Tigers last time out.

Bet – Murray Taulagi To Score A Try

The Dragons against the Bulldogs is arguably the hardest game to call a winner for this weekend. Only two points separate them in the standings, and while the Bulldogs have slightly better recent form, most of their best work has come at home. St. George also beat league leaders Melbourne last week, so they will be full of confidence.

However, despite them winning they are still struggling in attack and that looks set to continue here against the Bulldogs who have the second best defensive record in the NRL. They’ve gone under the total set here in three of their last four and they’ve also gone under in three of their previous four against their opponents here.

Bet – Dragons To Score Under 20.5 Points

This is a meeting between two out of sorts teams as the Dolphins host the Warriors in Brisbane. They’ve both lost three of their last four and are losing ground on the playoff places. However, a win here could change things for both sides, meaning this is arguably the most important game of the season for both.

Given all of the above, I have to admit I’m surprised the Dolphins are such short-priced favourites here. Especially given that the Warriors have won three of the four meetings between them. The Dolphins are also leaking tries heavily, having conceded at least 21 points in their last nine matches. Therefore, I’m tipping up Watene-Zelezniak to get over the paint. He’s scored in his last two matches and in his previous two games against the Dolphins, and I’m backing him to make it three in a row.

Bet – Dallin Watene-Zelezniak To Score A Try

If the Knights want to reach the playoffs, they simply have to win this one. Given the Tigers have lost their last six, you would imagine this should be a straightforward task for Newcastle. However, they’ve lost their last three and scoring has been a problem for them recently, having scored just 44 points in their last three matches.

With that said, they will be confident of ending their losing streak against a team they haven beaten on the last five occasions they have met. But they’re too short to back outright and I’m not convinced they will cover the spread.

Instead, I am going to tip up the Tigers to lead at half-time with the handicap. They started well last week against the Cowboys, and although this is short, it looks like it should be a sure thing.

Bet – Tigers +8.5 To Win The 1st Half

The Raiders and the Sea Eagles are separated by just three points in the NRL ladder, meaning this one is a must win for both teams as we near the end of the regular season. A win for Manly will put clear daylight between the two of them but a win for Canberra means it will still be all to play for.

Both teams are coming off four-point defeats last week, but overall, you would say they are both in good form. The Sea Eagles have had the better of things between the two recently. However, their dreadful away form which has seen them lose four of their last five, puts me off tipping them up to win this. 

Given this could be a tight, nervy affair, I think it could be low scoring. Therefore, I’m going to tip the Raiders to go under the team total set here. They have gone under the total set here in four of their last five games, and they have scored the second-fewest points in the league this season.

Bet – Raiders Under 20.5 Points

You could be forgiven for thinking this one will be a one-sided affair in favour of the visitors. However, the Eels have won two of the last three meetings between them, and they beat the Warriors in New Zealand last week, which is no easy task. Parramatta have also won three of their last four at home against Penrith. 

That said, I do believe the Panthers will win, but I can’t back them at these short odds, and 18.5 is a lot to cover in the handicap betting. Given Parramatta’s good record against Penrith and the fact that their attack clicked last week, I’m going to take them to go over the team total set by the bookies here. They’ve only once failed to score more than the total set here this season, and that came away from home.

Bet – Eels To Score Over 12.5 Points

The Titans are undoubtedly a team on the up right now. However, I am surprised to see them instilled as short-price favourites in this one. Granted, the Sharks haven’t been at their best recently, but they defended amazingly last week against the Rabbitohs, restricting them to just six points. 

The two met just over a month ago, and a slow start cost the Sharks dearly. However, they rallied well and eventually only lost by four. You have to think Cronulla will be ready for the early blitz this time round. Given they have won on their last four visits to the Gold Coast, I’m going to take them with the handicap to win this one.

Bet – Sharks +3.5 Points

After a mid-season resurgence, the Rabbitohs hopes of playoff rugby are fading, so the last thing they need this week is to face table-toppers Melbourne. South Sydney have lost three of their last four and only managed a combined total of 18 points in their previous two games.

However, they will be encouraged by the fact that the Storm were beaten last week by the Dragons in what was by far the biggest upset of the week. Last week’s result was probably just a blip for the men from Melbourne. But I certainly won’t be rushing out to back them at such short odds, especially as the Rabbitohs have won their last four in a row at home. 

Both teams struggled in attack last week, so I’m going to back unders in this one. The Rabbitohs’ last two games have gone under the total set here, as have Melbourne’s previous three.

Bet – Under 49.5 Points

Bet of the Week – Dragons To Score Under 20.5 Points (Versus Bulldogs)

Value of the Week – Dallin Watene-Zelezniak To Score A Try (Dolphins/Warriors)