Mick’s Mail: Sandown 28/09/2024

R1- We kick off with the best bet on the program in Treasure The Moment. This Matt Laurie trained filly has been very good at her 3 starts to date, finds very moderate opposition, and should be winning.

Reasonable Point improved hugely its 2nd run back to destroy its opposition, on that effort she will be more than competitive here.

Heat Of The Night has started her career with two honest 2nd placings, the daughter of Toronado will appreciate the step up in distance.

Chewing Gum won well on debut, is beautifully bred, and can figure also.

Backing #4 Treasure The Moment

R2- With the 2 favourites coming out I won’t be betting as there is no value left.

Sugar Coat has impressed at his 2 victories and has done it in the manner of a smart horse, the barrier ensures he gets the right run to go very close.

Ndola looked plain last start on face value, the drop back to 1100m wasn’t to his liking and I think we will see his early form returning as he gets to the 1400m here.

Red Sea will probably run 3^rd.

I like Sugar Coat marginally over Ndola but there is no bet from me.

R3- The lightly raced, very impressive mare Zloties is the obvious choice here, she maps to get the perfect run and be good smart for these.

Carina Queen resumes here, having her first run for Mitchell Freedman. Whilst she will need luck from a sticky barrier, her best form will have her right in this, she has also saluted at the course and distance.

Another couple also coming back from spells, Our Sassy Lady and Procureable have better than average ability and won’t be far away.

Backing #7 Zloties

R4- A tricky race here with many chances, I’ve settled on the SA visitor A Samurai Mind. This son of Shamus Award looks perfectly suited to the 1800m, has won 50% of his races and attacks the line with gusto, he will prove tough to beat here.

Alma Rise resumes here at the 1800m, she is an out n out stayer and the Moody/Coleman team will have her readied for this first up tilt.

Akrotiri will need luck from its draw but has definite claims as does The Englishman, this is around his mark.

Backing #1 A Samurai Mind

R5- Another race robbed of quality with some important scratching’s.

Blue Stratum has had a nice freshen up from his last run, he has decent ability and can surprise at good odds.

Symphony Of Colour wasn’t that suited down the straight last time out and can improve drastically here 2nd up.

Manolo Bling is honest, gets in good with the claim and can run into a place.

Adolfito was good on debut and resumes in what is a plain race, he must be a chance.

Backing #1 Blue Stratum

R6- A moderate lot of middle-distance gallopers greets us here and I’ll be backing Muramasa and El Soleado.

Muramasa drops significantly in class on those he faced last prep, his run first up showed he had returned in fine fettle and natural fitness improvement will have him in the finish.

El Soleado can be a little tardy on jumping although that will be a blessing here as he will go back from the barrier. There should be decent pace here and I expect him to deliver fast last sectionals, as he has previously, to be storming home late.

Berkeley Square saluted in a similar grade to this last start and should be competitive again, as will Star Vega after a recent freshen.

Backing #2 Muramasa and #8 El Soleado

R7- The impressive Craig is my top pick here. This lightly raced fella trounced his opponents last start off a freshen up and the 4 weeks off will be to his liking again. He is drawn to get a cushy run here and I see him being too good for this lot.

The Sydney visitor Communist has had two runs back to prepare him for his assault here and if he finds his best form he could trouble these.

Griff is a Group One winner of the Caulfield Guineas, is drawn perfectly and if he’s overcome his issues since that great win then he is right in the mix.

Holymanz is hard fit now and should peak here, his last run showed he is ready to win again.

Backing #11 Craig

R8- A tough race to close out the day and I’m heading out of the market for my suggested plays.

Ceerseven resumes for Mitchell Freedman and flies fresh, the 1400m suits perfectly for him fresh as he boasts a great record at the trip.

Furious also resumes for Team Hawkes, he is another who excels when fresh, has won at the track and at 1400m.

Both horses are around $21 in early markets, I have them marked well below that.

Modown’s both wins have been when 2nd up and he arrives at that stage of his campaign again. He will run his usual honest race.

Verdad is the best horse in the race and must go in, my big issue with him is his barrier and where he will be in the run. He is way too good to dismiss though.

Backing #14 Ceerseven and #16 Furious

R1-4xxx,5,6,3

R2-5,4,1

R3-7xx,2,13,14

R4-1,12,7,11

R5-1,6,5,3

R6-2&8,5,15

R7-11x,8,2,7

R8-14&16,18,8

R1-4 Best of the day

R3-7

R6-2&8

R8-14&16

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12

Return – 9

ROI -25%

All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 38

Return – 29

ROI -23.68%

Best of luck if you’re playing.