MICK’S MAIL: MOONEE VALLEY 27/9/2024

R1- I like Captain Barbossa to kick us off on the right leg. The step up to 1600M suits this son of Shamus Award perfectly. He is drawn to get a lovely run just off the speed and Shinn will have him building momentum coming to the corner and I see him running of the camber and being too good.

Twin Engine went super on the synthetic at Ballarat last start, if she can transfer that form to the grass then she will prove the toughest to best.

Evaporate is flying this prep and will be thereabouts, as will Cocobill who won well at Seymour on debut.

Backing #3 Captain Barbosa

R2- Le Mans is the one they all must beat here; she was very good first up in Oz and with natural improvement will go close. She was specked in the betting that day which suggests the stable have a decent opinion of her.

The dangers are Charlise who draws to get a soft run and is racing well, Written In Code who is always thereabouts but finds it hard to win, and Lievore who has been close this time in and arrives here in peak condition.

Backing #4 Le Mans

R3- Aramco finds its way to Melbourne after 3 runs in Sydney and I love him coming back in distance. Waller places these horses ideally and Shinn will give him the right run to be too good for these.

Kettle Hill showed last start that he is returning to somewhere near his best form, a repeat of that effort won’t have him far away.

I give Flash Feeling and Sosino rough chances at big odds, both are 2^nd up and have shown previously that they can improve dramatically after a run.

Backing #1 Aramco

R4- I thought Gentian Blue was a good hope last Saturday and her run had plenty of merit. The back up supports her doing well from that race and she gets a similar soft run here, with even luck she will be in the finish.

Lincoln Rocks is flying this prep, gets a soft draw, Zahra to steer and it boasts a good record at the track. It will prove tough to toss.

Lauding showed great fight in his last win, he will race on pace and look to kick on the corner and stave them off.

Denmark was also good in a class inferior to this although Waller bringing it here suggests this European import is far better than a Class 1 at Newcastle. Watch for positive betting moves.

Backing #13 Gentian Blue

R5- Arkansaw Kid should account for these here. Its return from being gelded was very good and pointed towards it winning better class races than what it faces here. He goes well 2^nd up and won his only start at the track, a crucial pointer as many will find it difficult if they haven’t been here previously.

Savannah Cloud is a classy horse who hasn’t missed a place in 6 goes when resuming. He maps to sit off them and loves the track, if there is a danger to the fave then I suggest it is him.

A Little Deep is a good horse fresh as evidenced first up, he has also won at the Valley, but the gate may prove sticky.

The ex Enzeder Desert Lightning will be finishing off late if they overcook it early although he may be better suited at his next run over a slightly longer trip.

Backing #3 Arkansaw Kid

R6- The Godolphin trained Silmarillion will provide the stiffest opposition here, she is beautifully bred, has 2 Group 2 placings and will be perfectly prepared for this assignment.

Immortal Star returned to form last start and Shinn has an almost perfect record on her.

Backing #3 Silmarillion

R7- Epimeles returns here off an unbeaten first prep. This is a serious horse; I am prepared to risk the potentially sticky barrier 1 and racing at 1200M for the first time. I expect the market to be against him which will only make his price more lucrative. His recent jump out showed he is forward enough to overcome the perceived obstacles.

Public Attention was impressive on debut with 2^ndplaced Ndola franking the form. He has had a freshen up with the view of better Spring races ahead and this is a great starting point.

Red Sea showed plenty of potential at its first campaign back in NZ, enough for the Forsman team to test him in much better grade. That should be respected as they are a very astute camp and have been successful with similar strategies previously.

Stoli Bolli has performed admirably at its first n2 starts and Team Hayes have a decent opinion of him.

Backing #2 Epimeles

R8- The highly rated Pericles should go very close here. He has raced against better class horses than he meets here, and last start was pipped late by Pinstriped who beat the very best last Saturday. I see him tucking in behind a hot speed and kicking away halfway down the straight.

Attrition showed last start that he could be back near his best. Hopefully, he is over all his injury issues and if so can match it with the very best.

Pounding wasn’t far away from Pericles last start and should be close again, as will Munhamek who backs up of a good run last Saturday and goes well here.

Backing #2 Pericles

R9- The race of the day and where to start.

The speed, barrier draw, weight scale and fitness will be the pointers.

Given all the factors I have settled on Lady Of Camelot, I think she will lead from barrier 2 and with no weight be too fast. The booking of Zac Lloyd tells me they have it revved up to be ridden just like that.

I Wish I Win is there with the very best sprinters in the country and its recent work tells me he is back to his very best. He is also very good first up and if they go too quick, he will storm over the top of them.

Chain Of Lightning is another superstar albeit untried qt 1000M. Her work in the past couple of weeks has been outstanding and she can never be dismissed.

Estriella is also a classy mare and if she can sit off Lady Of Camelot without going too mad then she may be able to outsprint the filly.

Backing #8 Lady Of Camelot

R10- We wind up the card with the improving Piastri as my top pick. His hit n run trip to Sydney was very good and he returns home with plenty in his favour. I see him positioning up around 5^th or 6^th in the run and Micky Dee letting him go on the corner. He should be too good for them.

Home Rule should get the box seat here and be strong late. John Allen has an excellent record on this horse, and he will be in the finish at double figure odds.

Verdad is a horse I have a huge opinion of, that said the trip might be a tad short of his best, but he could fly fresh.

Beast Mode is a consistent horse who gets in well after the claim.

Backing #10 Piastri

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 13

Return – 15.5

ROI +19.23%

Bets –  40

Return – 37.5

ROI -6.88%

Best of luck if you’re playing.