Mick’s Mail: Flemington 5/10/2024

R1- We kick off with what I think is the best value bet I have seen in some time in the shape of Scheelite. This fella has finished within a couple of lengths of Group One horses Veight and Cylinder early in his career, he finds a BM78 to get things back on track here. Last start he had no chance buried away and wasn’t tested after a first up ‘fitness’ run. The market went up $18 and he was quickly backed into $14, he is a massive bet each way at that price, I can’t see him missing a place. Another point to make is his racing pattern is to get back in his races, the 1200M down the straight will suit perfectly. Loading up!!!

Moby Dick is the obvious danger, he returned in great fashion first up and is a horse of obvious ability. That said, he went out $12 in a similar class race, and he is now around the $2.50 mark, not really value to my eye.

Prinzero is a consistent horse who races well at this venue, conditions suit, expect him to run well. Wolfy has decent ability and will be better suited here after one run back.

Betting up on #7 Scheelite

R2- Our first look at this seasons 2yo’s on Raceday and whilst its not a betting proposition there are many well bred conveyances who looked good at the trials and jump outs.

Those that I am keen to monitor in order of preference are – Sisstainable, Price Tag, Odessa, and Rumble Town.

As they progress along we will have a better idea from a betting perspective.

No Bet

R3- A very interesting race with most of these eyeing off the dream of heading to a Derby in Melbourne Cup week.

The progressive Keeneland comes out on top for me here. His last start win at Benalla showed me that as he gets out further in trip he will be even more suited. He is beautifully bred out of a Savabeel mare, is drawn to get a perfect run, and around the $9 mark is a fabulous bet in an open race.

Truth Or Dare from the in-form Mark Walker camp showed with his win at Pakenham that he will also relish the longer races, whilst he didn’t beat much that day, the manner with which he finished off his last 200M demonstrated that he has above average ability. He gets a soft draw and Micky Dee, plenty of pointers to promote his case.

Scary, is bred for a Derby trip, and is racing well, along with Sergeant Major, who is now approaching peak fitness and gets to a more suitable trip, round out my selections in a race of many chances.

Backing #6 Keeneland

R4- The Waller trained Declichy Boulevarde is my best bet of the day. This filly has been screaming out for the mile, has a perfect barrier and gets ‘The Magic Man’ Joe Moreira to steer. I see her settling a little more forward than recent efforts and with her superior turn of foot she should blast them away.

If there is a danger it may come from Commanche Miss, she has produced three very efforts since a spell and this journey looks perfect at this stage, is drawn perfectly and gets the underrated Tom Stockdale to ride.

Wings Of Desire arrives here from in Sydney in good form and is a chance, my question mark with her is will she get a strong 1600M.

Killcare Beachgirl is well bred, will make her own luck in front, and if she gets a soft lead could prove hard to run down.

Betting up on #4 Declichy Boulevarde

R5- I’ve settled on Bodyguard here; this colt has always showed that he is at his prime when fresh and his recent trial in Sydney confirmed that he is back to his best. He has won down the straight which is a big plus, is drawn out have plenty of options and Zahra will give him every opportunity.

First Settler is the obvious danger, he ran a very creditable 2^nd to the flying Growing Empire last start after two victorious starts to his career, barrier 1 mightn’t be the best draw for him but he will there for a long way.

Reserve Bank went to Ballarat for a ‘kill’ recently, it was the way he put them away that stamped him as a potential top liner. He is a serious horse and a win here wont surprise.

The filly Eneeza is up against it taking on the boys, she is very classy though and will be more than competitive.

Backing #2 Bodyguard

R6- Plenty Of Ammo has won 4 from only 5 starts after being a latecomer to the track, she resumes here in a targeted race and will prove the testing material. There is a certain ‘X Factor’ about this mare and if she is fully wound up she could blow them away.

Royal Champion arrives here from Europe with excellent credentials, he trailed and was wintered in Queensland to get him acclimatised, he is a definite hope although I couldn’t back him without seeing him on race day.

Makram is always a hope in this class and can fill a place.

Comrade Rosa has a very good run in her and gets conditions to suit here.

One to mention at ‘cricket score’ odds is Not An Option; at his best he could figure, and he races well at Flemington.

Backing #13 Plenty Of Ammo

R7- Wow, what a lottery, many of these are looking for a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup.

Mostly Cloudy arrives here after 2 runs back following a break after the Brisbane winter and I think this might be the right race for him. I particularly like horses with residual fitness off a Queensland winter and most of his opposition might still only be 90% right. I’ll be gambling that he has a better fitness profile than most for this event.

Post Impressionist is one who is reaching peak fitness, he has looked a little ‘off pace’ at his last two runs and I can see him making significant improvement here as he strips down. He has very good numbers back in the UK and boasts a win over a few of these when he first arrived in Oz.

Saint George was plain last start but has obvious ability, he will settle back and look to make a sweeping run coming to the corner, look for him late.

Berkshire Breeze will start favourite and is a chance, I just don’t thin he is value around the $4 mark in such an open event.

One to consider at 100’s is El Bodegon, going back 2 years he ran 3^rd to Anamoe in a Cox Plate on a heavy 8 track, he hasn’t really had conditions wet enough since and if the rains came he could run into a place for trifecta players.

Small plays #9 Mostly Cloudy and #4 Post Impressionist

R8- The race of the day, the time-honoured Turnbull Stakes. This year’s edition doesn’t appear one of the stellar versions with no apparent ‘superstars’ as has been the case in years gone by.

I’m backing Atishu, he comes into this race as a horse who loves the track and distance, gets a great draw, gets Zahra to ride and his 2 runs back now have him cherry ripe to put his best hoof forward.

Buckaroo is racing in career best form and will be the horse they all have to beat. The big cross against him is he hasn’t won at 2000M in 6 attempts. He does have a couple of big ticks in Waller and Moreira though.

Warmonger is the new kid on the block, he is an exciting type and cold blow them away, I have him peaking for the Cups and might be half a run short still from a fitness perspective.

Place Du Carrousel has excellent overseas form and cant be dismissed.

Backing #7 Atishu

R9- The Gilgai throws up a moderate lot for a Group 2 1200M ‘straight six’ event.

Sghrippa is my top selection, this fella flies 2^nd up, has won at the track/distance and handles all conditions. He stands out as one with less negatives than some of his opposition.

Stretan Angel is the danger, he is lightly raced and has always shown she has a good race in her, this could well be it. She is another with an outstanding 2^nd up record and the Stokes team has pinpointed this race for their mare.

Ripcord arrives here with a strong record from WA and showed with its work since arriving in Victoria that its ready to run a mighty race.

Magic Time is the class runner and can win although the barrier may be against it and it has ‘glue on shoes’ which suggest some minor hoof issues.

Backing #2 Sghrippa and #11 Stretan Angel

R10- An open race to close off the meeting.

Poifect on top, I’m banking on her progressing off her last start win and being the one they must run down. She is a progressive type and maps to be on pace and getting some soft sectionals.

Skybird is the best horse in the race and if she had drawn favourably would easily be on top, where she gets to from barrier 18 is a massive concern. Noting that if she gets even luck she probably wins.

Fortunate Kiss has better than average ability and can surprise at around $26, she will need luck from barrier 1 as it might be the best spot later in the day.

Lady in Pink and Foxy Cleopatra are better than their price currently suggests.

Backing #8 Poifect

R1-7xxx GV,5,8,10

R2-Watching 9,7,6,2

R3-6,7,5,2

R4-4xxx best/day….6,5,8

R5-2x,4…..7,9

R6-13,1,8,9 (6 knockout ??)

R7-very tough 9,4,14,16 (7 might speck @ 100’s)

R8-7x,3,5,12

R9-2x,11,5,4

R10-8x,4,11…13&14 knockouts at huge odds

R1-7

R4-4 Best Of The Day

R1-7 EW Best Value

R3-6

R8-7

R9-2

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 9

Return – 2.4

ROI -73.33%

Bets – 31

Return – 16.7

ROI -46.13%

Best of luck if you’re playing.