Mick’s Mail: Flemington 14/09/2024

R1- We kick off proceedings with the first of 4 races heading down the famous Flemington straight and I like the resuming Nadal here. This lightly raced 4yo was thought that highly by the stable that he took on the best in a Group 1 at his last run, he strikes an easier race here and his recent trial win showed he has overcome his issues and is ready to go.

Wolfy is another one resuming, the 1100M should fit perfectly and I expect to see him storming home late.

Baraquiel is racing in peak form, he has had a brief freshen up and is drawn to stay out of trouble, my only query with him is he must lump 61kgs and will be up facing the breeze and could be vulnerable late.

Zourion is also back form a spell, she wasn’t right in the Autumn and was tipped straight out, her recent jump out was excellent, and she maps to get the right cart into it.

Backing #4 Nadal and #11 Wolfy

R2- The emerging superstar Wonder Boy is my best bet of the day. This horse is right there with the best 3yo’s in my opinion. The step up to 1400M is perfect at this stage of his prep and barrier one will have him asleep back on the fence doing no work with Craig Williams getting him out to unleash his electrifying sprint. The small field only plays into his hands further as he won’t need to negotiate too much traffic whatever the circumstances. The $2.50 currently on offer is luxury, I have him marked in red numbers.

Daggers is unbeaten in its 2 runs and will look to lead and kick away, he will probably run 2^nd.

Just Party went awful in a very strong race last start and is better than that. He can improve sharply on a drier surface.

Detroit City is also uneaten and has won at the track/distance, he will be around the placings.

Backing #1 Wonder Boy

R3- Bold Bastille returns to her own age and sex here after a commendable run against Mornington Glory who franked that form winning the Moir last Saturday. If she has taken no harm from that run she will prove extremely hard to beat. From the barrier Zahra can plot whatever course he elects which could be a massive advantage with the rail returning to the true position.

Kuroyanagi got too far out of her ground last start, Melham can have her more forward her and she has real talent as evidenced by her efforts in the Autumn against top class opposition.

Drifting won well first up although at the price and with her weight impost I am prepared to back the other two to beat her.

One to keep tabs on is In Her Eyes, the stable thought enough of her to try her against the top-grade last prep. She will appreciate a firm surface and look for her to be storming home late at massive odds.

Backing #4 Bold Bastille and #8 Kuroyanagi

R4- Growing Empire returned in scintillating form last start, there is no reason to suggest he won’t win again. Zahra is riding very well and the set weights and penalties scale plays even further into his favour, if this was a handicap he would be giving most of these a stack of weight.

If there is a danger I believe it will come from Reserve Bank. His win on debut stamped him as a horse of decent ability and the Price/Kent team have always had a huge opinion of him. After the ridiculously easy win at Bendigo, he was turned out with the big Spring races in mind. Excited to see how far he develops this time in.

First Settler, stablemate to Reserve Bank is unbeaten and will be around the minor money as will High Octane ok behind Gatsby’s in Sydney although this is another level up in my opinion.

Backing #1 Growing Empire and saving on #12 Reserve Bank

R5- This is a tricky race with many still getting to full fitness with other targets down the track.

I’m leaning towards Post Impressionist. This import got left flat footed at his first run in Oz and it should be forgotten. He strips fitter here and will be better equipped to adapt to the varying speeds of our racing. He was fancied by the stable that day which suggests that he is doing plenty right at home.

Horrifying is hard fit and will run the trip right out, he is one of them that is ready to go now and not in a months’ time.

Point King had a few favours at his win recently and is drawn to get similar benefits, he is a massive chance.

Berkshire Breeze was a shade disappointing but is too good to leave out.

One horse that has decent ability and may return to form is Interpretation, at his best he would beat these and after 3 fitness runs could improve dramatically at cricket score odds.

Backing #2 Post Impressionist

R6- The resuming Makram is my best value bet on the card. First up last time in he won arguably a slightly harder race than this beating Jimmystar. He draws perfectly in 6 for his racing style, is well weighted only half a kg over the minimum and at $16 is a fabulous each way play.

Holymanz will prove hardest to beat. His 2 runs since a spell have both been encouraging and the 1400M at this stage is perfect. He has a decent record at both the distance and the track with Ethan Brown forging a great record on Maher trained runners.

Uncle Bryn could be a bit of a ‘smokey’ here, he goes extremely well fresh and has a habit of putting in a big run when out of the market.

Carini is another resumer who can put out a big run, he is drawn to get a soft run and will be finishing off well late.

Backing #7 Makram

R7- Quintessa did us a favour first up and reports were that she still had decent improvement in her. If that’s the case then she might just be too good for them again. She has an excellent record, should camp just off them, and hopefully steal a march at the 200M.

Wollombi was jogging in the run in the same race and with any luck would have given Quintessa a run for her money. She should have energy stored off that effort and from barrier 3 will get a cushy run. If the run presents at the right time she will prove hard to hold out.

Vagrant drops a lot in class here and could be the blowout at huge odds, I have her marked half the price currently on offer. She will be at peak fitness now and we won’t be losing if she arrives.

Foxy Cleopatra is an interesting runner resuming, she is better suited over longer distances but goes well fresh and will be ripping home late.

Backing #1 Quintessa

R8- Mr Brightside comes out well on top for me here. He loves 1600M, flies 2^nd up, has an amazing will to win, and is drawn perfectly. The $3.50 currently on offer seems a luxury to me.

Pride of Jenni is far better suited at this trip and track with less early pressure. If you put last starts effort behind her (she has never gone well first up) she is right in this, especially with the lack of pace in the race.

Via Sistina is a huge spruik off her last win, that said, she is woefully short in the market given the quality of the opposition. If she wins I’ll be losing on the race.

Atishu is another classy galloper who goes great 2^nd up and has excellent distance/track stats, she could be the surprise packet of the less fancied runners.

Backing #1 Mr Brightside

R9- This is tough race, you can mount a case for nearly every runner.

I’m Keen on Sans Doute, this talented mare gets in on the limit and was close to Mornington Glory last start. She is unbeaten at Flemington, the stable and jockey are both flying. Micky Dee will give her a lovely smother from a middle barrier and produce her at the furlong to run them down.

Buenos Noches wasn’t right in the Autumn, and I suspect he is ready to go here first up. He is top class at his best and if he is anywhere near that then he could blow them away.

Benedetta is a classy mare who loves the ‘straight six’, she goes well fresh and will be thereabouts at the finish.

Spacewalk has a sense of timing here, he loves the course and won at his only start at the Flemington 1200M. He is a versatile horse that adapts his racing pattern for the conditions.

One that might be a fluker’s hope is Not An Option, if they overcook it with early speed he could surprise at massive odds.

Backing #12 Sans Doute

R10- I like the chances of Brayden Star here at double figure odds. He poked around first up in an unsuitable race and the step up to 1700M is very favourable. He usually improves dramatically 2^nd up and is drawn to get a quiet run and fly late.

Positivity is the danger; she was very good first up and a repeat will have her go very close to winning.

Shaiyhar is probably eyeing off longer races in the Spring but has obvious class and the 1700M first up won’t pose a problem. He is drawn well to do little work throughout the race and a forward showing is expected.

Emissary is another who can put in a big run fresh and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Backing #8 Brayden Star

R1-4x,11…1,12

R2-1xxx best/day,2,4,3

R3-4,8,1,10 not hopeless

R4-1x…12…..7,4

R5-2,3,8,6, (5 improver??)

R6-7x great value,5,1,10

R7-1xx,7,4,15

R8-1xx,6,8,7 knockout

R9-12xx,4,2,5, (late 8)

R10-8 value,11,16,2

R2-1 best/day

R7-1

R8-1

R9-12

R6-7 best/value

R10-8

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 4.4

ROI -56%

Bets – 40

Return – 14.6

ROI -63.5%

Best of luck if you’re playing.