Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 21/9/2024

R1- A tough race to kick us off, I’ve settled on Flamin’ Romans. This lightly raced gelding has returned in great form this prep, his last start win in SA was full of merit and he showed great tenacity to score. I can see no reason why he can’t continue his winning way and the $9 currently on offer seems succulent.

Denmark from the Waller yard was good at his first Melbourne run and I see him making further progress here.

Quantam Cat, another Waller runner will be around the money, as will Whiskey On The Hill, who is hard fit now after 2 runs this time in.

Backing #14 Flamin’ Romans

R2- The exciting Federer is my best of the day. This son of Dundeel has done all that has been expected of him so far and I see him being far too good for this lot and progressing onto better class races in the Spring. His last start win at Sandown was ridiculously easy, only very good horses treat fields with the contempt that he did that day.

Waimarie, Le Zebra and Nails Murphy are all racing well enough to fill the trifecta spots.

One to keep a close eye on is Shahzad. He is having his first start here from France and boasts reasonable European form, whether he is wound up for this assignment will tell in the betting I’d suggest.

Betting up on #11 Federer

R3- Poifect resumes here, I have a decent opinion of this mare. She has never missed a place first up, is drawn perfectly, gets the red-hot Micky Dee to ride and maps to get the perfect run. The $5.50 that was on offer when the fields came out was over the odds, I can see her starting favourite.

Anahita has had 2 fitness runs back from a spell and is ready to peak. She is a 3^rd up winner, draws perfectly, gets the ‘Magic Man’ Moreira to ride and will prove hard to toss.

Chances also to Quickster and Sassy Boom.

Backing #3 Poifect

R4- A nice bunch of progressive 3yo fillies here and I’ve gone for the Sydney visitor Lilac. First up from a spell J Mac went to Wyong for one ride on a Sunday to test her out, and she didn’t let him down. Last start she was very brave in running 2^nd behind a handy horse after doing plenty of work in the run. I think Zahra will have her sitting just off the speed and being too good late.

Silmarillion was very good last start and will be finishing off hard, from the barrier she will need luck getting out to ensure others don’t steal a march.

Declichy Boulevard and Jenni’s Meadow and both improving types who will run well.

Backing #7 Lilac

R5- The boom horse Another Wil should just win here. Its win first up at Caulfield was insane and had the sectional timekeepers checking their watches with its last couple of 200m splits. Whilst there are some nice horses in the race, Another Wil is a legitimate group 1 horse. Only risk is barrier 1 but his electric turn of foot should overcome any obstacles.

Light Infantry Man is well acclimatised now and could be the knockout if there is one. He draws perfectly to get a lovely run, Zahra will know exactly where the favourite is positioned during the race, and he will look to get a break on him at the 200, time will tell if that is good enough.

Wishlor Lass is a classy mare who can pull out a big run fresh, look for her to figure late.

Craig won very well last start and is up in grade, he is an improving type though who can surprise.

Backing #3 Another Wil

R6- Chinny Boom steps out here first up for the new stable of Moody/Coleman and I’ve seen this type of horse improve greatly when switched to this camp. She boasts a fabulous record of 9 wins from 17 starts and I’m tipping that she will be wound up to fly here. She has tremendous early speed, is drawn perfectly and their loyal servant Luke Nolan has been entrusted with the job of getting her home first.

Rey Magnerio races very well fresh, loves the distance and he will be storming late. The barrier won’t be of any concern if the track is racing fairly as his natural pattern is to settle back anyway.

Jimmysstar resumes here, flies first up, will also settle in the back half of the field and be storming down the middle of the track. If they overcook it early then look for him late.

Commemorative was unlucky first up in Sydney and is a quality mare, she won’t be far away.

Backing #6 Chinny Boom

R7- I like the set-up of Gear Up here. This son of Teofilo is a proven performer 2^nd up, loves Caulfield where he has never missed a place and goes well at the 2000M, a distance that is perfect at this stage of his prep. Jamie Mott to ride and a good barrier, I see him settling just forward of midfield and unleashing at the top of the straight. The $19 they went up early was crazy and the $12 still on offer is very generous to my eye.

Que Tempesta was an excellent run first time her in Oz. Another with an imposing 2^nd up record, barrier 4 and Zahra look perfect. He should be in the finish.

Saint George was fair first up and will benefit from that outing. Kah will be looking to settle a bit more forward from the draw this time and a significantly improved showing is expected here.

Immediacy has untapped potential and could be a stayer of the future, the stable has high hopes for him, just not sure if he needs another run to be at his peak. The Caulfield Cup will be his target I expect.

Backing #9 Gear Up and #1 Que Tempesta

R8- WOW, talk about an open race, a WFA race with very few horses proven at that level.

I had trouble splitting the European import Place Du Carrousel and the emerging mare Coco Sun.

Place Du Carrousel was very good at her first run here behind Via Sistina and then wasn’t in the race behind Pride Of Jenni, that is true WFA form which many cant profess. She flies fresh and the 1800M suits perfectly. Zahra will have her parked just off them and she will be in the finish.

Her danger is Coco Sun who was very nice first up. She is unbeaten 2^nd up and is a mare of untapped ability. My only question mark is if she is at her peak fitness yet, happy to take the $14 to find out.

Pericles must go in also; he’s racing in great heart and has most of his opposition here covered from an ability perspective. His gate is slightly sticky and will need a good ride from Shinn early to take up a forward position one off the fence. His class should carry him a long way.

Fawkner Park went to another level in the Brisbane winter and with some residual fitness and natural improvement can’t be dismissed. He could be the giant killer of the Spring.

Backing #11 Place Du Carrousel and #13 Coco Sun

R9- An exciting bunch of 3yo’s here.

I’ve settled on the Waller trained Private Life. He has been purposely brought along slowly with the view of the big black type races. Barrier 7, Magic Man, a positive map, and plenty of energy reserves will stand him in good stead.

Epimeles was unbeaten before being knock from pillar to post last start. His win at Flemington in the Autumn showed he is a horse of above average ability and I see him finishing hard late in the race here.

Angel Capital retuned in great order, he gets a perfect draw and Melham to complement his set up.

Bosustow will appreciate the step up in distance and should be thereabouts.

Backing #10 Private Life

R10- I’m specking Moesha here albeit her form suggests she finds it hard to win. That said she is easily up to this class with several of her placings being to group horses. I’m expecting the Moody/Coleman team to have her wound up for a big showing here.

Red Card will lead them a merry dance although there is a risk about her getting a super strong 1200M, if she gets a few favours she could overturn that theory.

Extratwo is flying at present as is A Little Deep, a win from either won’t surprise.

A couple to watch are Seonee and Mollynickers, both are better over more ground but can pull out a big run fresh at huge odds.

Backing #15 Moesha 

R1-14,5,8,15

R2-11xxx best/day,6,5,2, (1 watch betting)

R3-3xx,7,6,1

R4-7,1,6,2

R5-3xx,5,10,9

R6-6x,12,8,11

R7-9x,1,15,16

R8-11&13,2,

R9-10x,3,2,4

R10-15x,4,8,6 (watch 1 & 11 if specked)

R2-11

R3-3

R5-3

R1-14

R7-9

R10-15

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 11

Return – 6

ROI -45.45%

Bets – 40

Return – 14.3

ROI -64.25%

After 14 weeks the ROI on suggested bets is +38.7%, let’s hope we build on that this week.

Best of luck if you’re playing.