Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 19/10/2024

R1- The day commences with 2 distinct chances considering recent form and those with the best scope of handling the conditions.

I’ve marked Catoggio marginally on top of Sugar Coat. Catoggio is drawn to go straight to the lead from its favourable draw and early in the day I’m banking on being on pace to be the best position. It has performed ok on affected tracks previously and should give a great sight.

Sugar Coat has performed well at all 3 runs and is the obvious danger, the big question mark with him is barrier 11. Should he get decent cover in the run he will be finishing hard if the track allows.

Barbaric Lad fresh, and Getafix, should be around the placings.

Backing #4 Catoggio

R2- Reserve Bank stands out to me here. This fella was very good last start in a field far superior to this, has excellent wet track form, and a perfect draw to stalk the leading pack in a race of above average speed. It will take a good horse to beat him.

Gallant Son has displayed good ability in his first 2 career starts and if there’s a chink in the armour of Reserve Bank then he will be the conqueror.

Bittercreek is better than a $19 chance and should go into your exotics. Lofty Arch can run a cheeky race from the front.

Backing #6 Reserve Bank

R3- Keeneland is a horse I have a healthy opinion of, and against this field is my best bet of the day. His last win at Flemington was very good and from the barrier he should get every chance to repeat the dose. Another tick is his breeding, it is perfectly suited for a wet deck.

Red Aces has been good so far in his career, the step up to 2000M looks advantageous for him. He has performed well on soft surfaces previously and being by Dundeel will support his step out in trip.

Sydney visitor China Sea will relish the 2000M and should run well, as will Kingofwallstreet who improved sharply at its 2^nd start.

Backing #1 Keeneland

R4- A tricky race here for the fillies who have their eyes on progressing to an Oaks trip later in 3 weeks’ time.

I’ve plonked for the Waterhouse/Bott bone n muscle of Killcare Beachgirl here. I like the map, given she will be ridden positively, after her recent efforts will be rock hard fit and the one they will all have to get past.

Inevitable Truth could be the surprise packet, John Sargent is a great conditioner of stayers, especially fillies, and has had a nice grounding for a staying trip. The $14 seems juicy to my eye.

Femminile will enjoy getting out in trip and won her only attempt on a heavy track, she is now cherry ripe to improve dramatically.

Too Darn Discreet has been good recently, although I have a small query on her going to 2000M on a slow/heavy track, the $3.20 seems under the odds to me.

Backing #5 Killcare Beachgirl and #6 Inevitable Truth

R5- The resuming Niance will be very hard to beat here. She is unbeaten first up, reacts on soft tracks, and is drawn to have a few choices early. Jordan Childs has a fabulous affinity winning 3 of his 4 rides on her and I like the $4.50.

Penthouse can run a race at juicy odds also, his trainer Matty Dale has an uncanny knack of picking out nice races for his horses. This mare flies first up, handles all surfaces and gets Melham to give it the right steer, $23 is big overs.

Isthmus is going very well at present although, I’m against it at the price with barrier 1.

Lempicka has ability, can pull out a big run and a forward showing wont surprise.

Backing #10 Niance and saving #4 Penthouse

R6- Benagil is a filly that gets my attention here. She won her first two races at her first prep and was all at sea when resuming. She will need a little bit of luck with getting back in the field early but has a nice turn of foot if she can get the breaks at the right times. In a race of average depth, I’m prepared to take double figure odds to see if she can navigate a winning path.

Matisse ran a very nice race fresh and her sectionals very well solid late. That races form was franked last week by Bellatrix Star, and she will be in the finish here.

Exhuberance from the red-hot Mark Walker stable is better than a rough chance, she could be worth a ticket at $31. Her win at Cranbourne showed untapped ability and is also bred to go through the wet.

Tobeornottobe is a hard fit now and should be thereabouts.

Backing #8 Benagil

R7- A very open race to kick off the quaddy, could be a field job for those who want to stay alive. Full disclosure, I have struggled with the race, I will be influenced by track pattern and how badly the rain has affected the conditions.

For the record I have Katsu in front of Estriella, Rey Magnerio and Sans Doute.

Rey Magnerio would have been on top except the wet track, I don’t believe it will be helpful.

Spacewalk can pull out a big run fresh and Midtown Boss would be higher up in my thoughts on a drier track.

Scuderia is better that a 50/1 chance and if its leaderish can give plenty of cheek.

No Bet

R8- Another tricky race although I’m a little more confident I can find the winner here.

Skybird and Plenty Of Ammo are both classy mares and stand out above the rest here. There is very little between them although I have Skybird slightly on top.

Seonee can surprise here at massive odds, she goes like a jet 2^nd up winning 3 of 5 and has excellent wet track stats.

Lady In Pink’s run first up was better than it appeared on paper and is better than a $21 chance.

Backing #4 Skybird, #14 Plenty Of Ammo and #5 Seonee

R9- Not the strongest Caulfield Cup so I am specking Duke De Sessa to get the chockies. He went great in the Turnbull, in a much harder race, gets in with no weight and Ciaron Maher will have him ready to fire.

Maher will also have the import Sayedaty Sadaty ready to run the race of his life, his European numbers suggest he should be more than competitive against this grade of Group 1 horses.

Zardozi will find conditions and the journey to suit, albeit I have little knowledge of the hoop.

Eliyass will give a great sight on pace and has great wet track stats.

Coco Sun, Circle Of Fire, the in form Buckaroo and Muramasa can figure.

Backing #10 Duke De Sessa and #18 Sayedaty Sadaty

R10- I’m tipping Pinstriped to finish of the day on a good note for punters. Two starts back he was the giant killer and beat the very best of them, he will appreciate the drop back to 1400M here. There is no Mr Brightside amongst this lot.

Aegon wasn’t right last start and has since trialled well, at his best he will test these.

Cosmic Vega is a bit of a smokey here, it has been tried in good company since arriving from Europe and hasn’t measured up. It has obviously had issues and if over them could surprise at good odds.

Mighty Ulysses is another who could figure and should be respected.

Backing #1 Pinstriped

R1-4x,1….3,2

R2-6xxx,7,1,8

R3-1xxx best/day,2,7,8

R4-5,6,3,1

R5-10x, saving 4….8,3

R6-8x,5,12,2

R7-very open 5,1,8,6..10 not hopeless if leaderish

R8-4,14,5,11 (wet 3,9,12,13)

R9-10gv,18,13,7,14 (wet 2,3)

R10-1x,13,16,7??

R2-6

R3-1 best of the day

R1-4

R4-6

R5-4

R6-8

R8-5

R9-10

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 6.7

ROI -33%

Bets – 38

Return – 45.3

ROI +19.21%

Best of luck if you’re playing.