Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 17/08/2024

R1- A Little Deep kicks off the day for the Waller stable and I like her chances. She is unbeaten first up, gets Jaylah Kennedy’s claim to assist and recent jump outs point to an excellent showing. At her last start before going for a spell she was disadvantaged racing on the fence, I envisage her mapping perfectly just off the leaders one out one back and being too good.

Shaime is the danger, she is racing in great heart winning 2 of her past 3 starts and another forward showing is expected.

Sunset Dreamer can figure, she has raced in good company and her first run back this time in suggests she has returned in great order, she really pinged late and might be looking for a bigger track and 1200M+ now.

Dipsy Doodle back from Sydney is honest and will be around the money.

Backing #2 A Little Deep

R2- I’ve got this race narrowed down to two distinct hopes with Rhapsody Chic coming out slightly on top of Showmanship.

Rhapsody Chic is absolutely flying lately, winning its last 4 on end. The Freedman team have a fabulous knack of getting horses to their peak and keeping them there. He gets in on the limit here, Kah rides, and is drawn to get a great run.

The toppy Showmanship is the class runner and last start did us a favour and returned to best form beating a quality field. He finds a field here that is well within his scope, and I expect him to go mighty close.

Stablemates from Team Hayes, Rise At Dawn and Devoted are both chances to fill the minor placings.

Backing #6 Rhapsody Chic and #1 Showmanship

R3- The Nick Ryan trained Cap De Joie is my best bet on the card. This imported mare boasts an excellent record when resuming, is drawn perfectly and gets the masterful Mark Zahra to steer. The $5.50 currently on offer is succulent to my eye and I have her marked around $3.

Alectrona will be hardest to beat, she is on an upward spiral and gets Shinn to ride for the McEvoy’s. Her latest run showed she’s a better than average mare and will continue to go through her grades.

Lovazou is 2 from 2 this time in, is honest and a chance albeit weighted to her best.

Le Mans is a big query runner from the UK. Her trial recently showed she is a mare who should be respected and is from a very good family. The Price/Kent team mightn’t have her fully wound up as I suspect there are bigger fish to fry ahead. That said all market moves should be closely monitored.

Backing #4 Cap De Joie

R4- Cavallo Rampante presents here off the 7-day back up and I can’t see any reason why she can’t do us another favour. Her effort last Saturday was full of merit, she is drawn perfectly and the magical Micky Dee sticks.

I give Port Albert a big hope, he had a minor setback a few weeks back and showed he’s over that with a nice jump out 2 weeks ago. He’s drawn well, gets Mott on and flies fresh.

Prinzerro rarely runs a bad race and can figure as can I Miss Margie who excels fresh and rarely runs a bad race.

Backing #10 Cavallo Rampante and #2 Port Albert

R5- A tricky race here with all runners winning chances.

The Jerome Hunter trained Wonder Boy went great in winning on debut at Flemington. He’s had a nice little freshen up for the Spring, and a very nice leg stretching effort around Mornington recently that has him primed for a first up tilt.

Blue Stratum is flying and will prove the hardest to beat. His 2 wins this prep have had plenty of merit although he will need to be at his best as he extends out to 1100M.

Interest Point is another runner who has had a brief let up with better Spring races in mind. He’s been very good in all 3 starts so far and won’t be far away.

Band Of Brothers will race on speed and try to slip them on the corner and is a chance.

#4 Wonder Boy

R6- I’m specking one at odds here Berezka. I think she will be better on a bigger track and a slightly longer trip although im prepared to speck her here given her significant talent.

Drifting will prove hardest to beat. Peter Snowden is one of the best placers of horses in the game, he has targeted this race with this daughter of Zousain with the booking of Shinn saying she is ready to fire.

SA visitor Kuroyanagi has performed well when previously heading to Melbourne and she will run well.

Bellatrix Star appears here for the Mark Walker team, she has performed very well against quality opposition back in NZ and could surprise at big odds.

Backing #9 Berezka and #1 Drifting

R7- The underrated Mitchell Freedman produces Vagrant fresh here, she’s loves Caulfield, has won at the track/distance and Beau Mertens is 3 from 3 on the mare. At the $18 currently on offer I think she’s a great each way play in an open race.

Maotai from the Moody/Coleman stable went great for its new home first up and I see him continuing that form. Linda Meech has a great record with this team and will give it every chance.

Caste had issues last prep resulting in a knee op, it wasn’t pressured in a recent hit out and she is very smart at best.

The Pendragon is an interesting runner and can improve markedly on his first run here in Oz, the stable has a decent opinion of him.

Backing #10 Vagrant

R8- The race of the day here with 2 clear standout chances. I’ve settled on Pinstriped who is a group 1 horse at his best. He had issues last time in that limited his campaign to only one start and was subsequently spelled. He has had 3 jump outs in preparation for this and if he’s back to anything like his best he will be going very close.

Pericles is the obvious danger; he has raced against the very best and the stable have him winning better races than this. If there is any chink in Pinstriped’s armour then Pericles will be winning.

The NZ visitor is a very good horse on his day and a forward showing is very probable.

Buffalo River will make his own luck in front and if allowed to bowl along without pressure he may prove difficult to run down.

Backing #6 Pinstriped

R9- The Maher trained Danaustar is my top pick here, two runs this time in has him primed for this. He boasts an imposing record 3^rd up. Zahra steers and I see him being positioned just off them coming to the corner and accelerating past them to score.

Its stablemate Running By flies fresh, loves Caulfield and the 1400m is ideal. If they go hard early he can storm over the top of them.

Elouyou has had a start/stop prep although at his best will be more than up to these. The current price of $2.30 seems a tad under the odds in my opinion.

The Open is honest and is racing well, he can figure also.

Backing #6 Danaustar and #1 Running By

R1- 2xx,5,8,3

R2- 6x,1…7…3

R3- 4xxx best/day,11,6,9???

R4- (10x,2x)..11,15

R5- 4xx,1,3,5

R6- 9 value,1,5,2

R7- 10 value,11,9,5 knockout chance

R8- 6x,1….3??,4

R9- 6 value,1,16,8

R1-2

R3-4 best of the day

R5-4

R6-9

R7-10

R9-6

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 9

Return – 47.9

ROI  +532.2%

Bets – 32

Return – 68.6

ROI  +214.38%

Best of luck if you’re playing.