Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 13/07/2024

R1 – We kick off proceedings with a clash between two in-form fillies and I’m very keen on Miss Roumbini to continue on her winning way. She is unlucky not to be unbeaten this prep and whilst she gives weight to her opposition, she is robust enough to offset that with her ability and will to win.

Enna’s Dream is the obvious danger, is drawn to get the right run but will need plenty to go right to beat the topweight.

Untouchable Legend has shown enough early in her career and may be ready to improve after 2 runs back. Lovazou won well first up on the heavy first up and can fill a place.

Backing #1 Miss Roumbini

R2- An open race here with many form lines and angles to assess. I’ve settled on the Waller trained Step Aside, this horse had a fitness outing fresh in Sydney and significantly improves 2nd up. He is drawn to get a nice run just off them and should be strong at the finish.

His danger is Rogue Rocker, his two runs back have shown gradual fitness improvement and the step up to 1400M fits perfectly as does his profile on rain affected tracks.

The Maddie Raymond trained import Kingswood is a huge query, its form back in Ireland is good enough to have it contending here and with even luck from a favourable draw I can see it finishing off hard.

El Rocko is racing in great heart, should position up nicely from its rails draw and will be thereabouts.

Backing #14 Step Aside and saving on #13 Rogue Rocker

R3 – A fabulous bunch of beautifully bred 2yo fillies here, many of them very expensive and being brought along quietly with their 3yo careers in mind.

I’ve plonked on the Godolphin trained daughter of Lohnro in Turbinado. I always like horses that have a brief educational preparation and are then turned out for some more growing. The booking of Shinn is significant here and her previous race day experience will stand her in good stead.

Of the unraced there are some real eyecatchers – On Display ($1.1M), Manolo Bling (her mother is a full to Sweet Idea and Showtime), Just Like Gaby ($800K and out of the brilliant Loving Gaby) and Sirena ($250K from the excellent race mare Fidelia). It won’t surprise if one or more of these turn out to be a group horse.

Small play #5 Turbinado

R4- Emerging 3yo staying colts and geldings take the stage here and I’ve narrowed it down to 2 nice chances at a bit of value.

Firstly, the topweight Matusalem appeals, this son of The Autumn Son is screaming out at wanting 2000M or further. Its 2 runs run have appeared only plain on paper, although its final 200M last start showed me that huge improvement was in store when next produced.

The Griffiths/De Kock trained Do You Think So is also one searching for the step up in distance. I’m banking on the stable having him ticking along nicely at home for his foray into the big smoke. The booking of Shinn is a tip, and I’m thinking this has been a target race for this fella off his fitness run 6 weeks ago at Pakenham.

Boga Legend has been racing well and is drawn to suit, with consistent Rezone a chance although he always seems to find one better.

Backing #1 Matusalem and #4 Do You Think So

R5- Hoping the 2^nd emergency Torranzino gets a run here. I see him peaking 4^th run in this prep and in an open race I see him being a great hope around the $15 mark.

Desperado is the obvious danger; he is racing in great heart and gets the benefit of the 3kg claim from Jaylah Kennedy.

Jabbawockeez is an ultra-consistent horse who will benefit from its recent try at 2000M and Shinn will give it every chance.

Matron Bullwinkle should be hard fit and ready to show its best, if she does so then she will be in the finish.

Backing #18 Torranzino

R6- I really like one at huge odds here, the Annabel Neasham trained Watadeel. Now ready to be getting out to 1700M at its 4th run this time in. The draw is a little sticky although I’m hoping Zac Spain can tuck him in with a nice rhythm and produce it late down the outside. At $27 he is a great chance to upset its more fancied opponents.

The favourite Nations Call is racing in career best form and a repeat of its recent efforts will have him close at the finish.

Lauding appears here fresh and the resumption at 1700M suggests Maher has it ripe to run a big race. He is as honest as the day is long and he never puts in a poor display.

Tobaysure performed well first up, will race on the speed and give a big sight.

Backing #8 Watadeel each way

R7 – The first upper Rewards And More gets my nod here. He comes back to the races off two nice 900M jump outs and the 1100M suits perfectly. Barrier 18 is somewhat of a concern although I’m thinking that later in the day it might not be too much of an issue.

Marble Nine is the one he will have to beat; I don’t think he was suited down the straight recently and I see him tucked up behind them in the run and trying to sprint clear at the 200M. His previous runs were good enough to win this.

Gitalong from Team Hawkes is very honest, will race on pace and give a sight.

The emerging horse from the ‘Bool’ Major Share has done everything expected of him to date, he can take that next step to be competitive in this grade.

Backing #17 Rewards And More

R8- Recommendation resumes here and is my best bet on the program. This has been a target race for this impressive sprinter, and I believe he will be far too good for these.

Little Miss Kubi is a value hope for the quinella spot, she was tucked away in a recent jump out and will be finishing off hard late.

Mornington Glory is another smart sprinter who will run a big race, although he has only won 1 of 4 fresh and I think Recommendation has its measure.

Mrs Chrissie is in a purple patch of form but will need to step up several grades to figure here.

Betting up on #2 Recommendation

R9- The closer presents a couple of value runners at juicy odds.

I’ve got Astero on top, Matty Smith has him on the 7-day backup from the 1200M straight race last Saturday, and I think he is fabulously suited here with Shinn on board. The $15 currently on offer is succulent.

Another chance at massive odds is the resuming Degraves, Gavin Bedggood scratched him recently and the 1400M fresh suits perfectly, look for him to be storming home late. He’s worth a ticket at the $26.

St Lawrence has conditioned well for this and is a winning chance as is Lafargue who is 3 from 3 when 3rd up from a break.

Backing #9 Astero and #5 Degraves

R1-1xx,2,7,4

R2-14,13,5??,7

R3-5x,(big watches on 18,17,12&15)

R4-backing 1&4,7,3

R5-18x,3,12,14

R6-8ew xx,15,11,5

R7-17,10,1,6

R8-2xxx best/day,6,3,5

R9-backing 9&5,8,10

R1-1

R8-2 best of the day

R4-4

R5-18

R6-8

R9-9

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 15 units

Return – 10.1 units

ROI -32.66%

Bets – 35 units

Return – 34.8 units

ROI  -0.57%

Best of luck if you’re playing.