Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 12/10/2024

R1- We kick the card off with progressive Saban bringing greater depth and potential than his opposition. The 1700m perfectly suits 2nd up and I see him heading to better class races this Spring.

Platinum Destroyer is a progressive middle distance horse who is drawn to get a perfect run, whilst he is rising in class here, I believe he won’t be out of place against this lot.

Shahzad was good late at his first run here from France, he’s unbeaten 2nd up and is better than a $26 chance.

Extreme Virtue is unbeaten this time in, is ultra-consistent and in-form mares should always be considered.

Backing #8 Saban

R2- I found it extremely difficult to split I Am Velvet and Kuroyanagi. I ended up slightly in favour of I Am Velvet as it looks to have greater untapped ability.

Both lovely fillies I have marked well in front of their opposition.

Erno’s Cube back to the more suitable 1200M is a hope and the McEvoy first starter Keepsake should be respected off its breeding and recent trial effort.

Backing #3 I Am Velvet

R3- This Group 3 mares race has thrown up an open affair, I’ve gone looking for value and think there is a fabulous each way play in Moesha. Her first up run was far better than it looks on paper, is always around the money 2nd up and the $23 on offer is more than juicy.

Extratwo never runs a bad race, gets J Mac and will again be in the finish somewhere along with stablemate A Little Deep who is in career best form.

One that could surprise at huge odds is Vagrant, she will be much better suited on a dry surface and wasn’t disgraced behind Pinstripe and Mr Brightside 2 starts back. This is a massive class drop off that.

Backing #12 Moesha

R4- Sydney visitor City Of Lights arrives here off a luckless run first up at Newcastle. The very astute Joe Pride doesn’t travel them for the Frequent Flyer points, he has targeted this race for her black type and books J Mac to deliver the goods. She will be very hard to beat.

Foxy Cleopatra was backed in at long odds last Saturday and ultimately scratched when the deluge came, onto a dry surface will be a big help. She has good ability when right and can figure her at huge odds.

Lady Jones has been good when running on at its 2 starts since returning from a spell, she should be at peak fitness now and should be in the placings.

Vibrant Sun was only plain first up but improves dramatically 2^nd up, a significantly improved showing here is expected.

Backing #14 City Of Lights

R5- Run Harry Run is my preferred elect here, from barrier five I expect him to get a lovely run just behind the speed and prove hard to hold out. He goes great at Caulfield, improves 2^nd up, loves the distance, and Stackhouse is 3 wins from 5 rides on him. He’s a terrific each way bet at the $13 currently on offer.

Von Hauke was another that was scratched last week because of the track deterioration, he is a horse I have a decent opinion of, and he is very close to a win. If it isn’t here, then watch for him next start at Flemington over 1600M.

Jimmysstar is building an imposing record (6wins from 11 starts) and will be very hard to beat, he is getting into a very short price and whilst he is a huge winning chance I couldn’t take $2.10 about him.

Sirileo Miss is a class mare who needs it to be longer, but has good form fresh, she is worth putting in the exotics.

Backing #14 Run Harry Run

R6- The emerging stayer Haaracaine is my best bet on the program. Since arriving from Europe as an unraced entire, he has continued to improve with racing and the stable has always had big hopes for him. This race has been a target and astute placement gets him in with no weight, a great barrier, and whilst he is up in grade, his opposition aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. I’m keen to follow the stable sentiments and label him here.

The Map has eyes on the first Tuesday in November, that said, she has had two even fitness runs and usually performs well 3^rd up. An improved showing can be expected here.

Post Impressionist needs to step it up here to justify the stable opinion and to be any hope in the better Spring races. He will be better suited on a firmer surface and whilst needing a bit of luck from a sticky barrier his overseas form points to him being a contender.

Mister Wolfgang boasts good form back in NZ and can’t be dismissed. They haven’t brought him here for members enclosure tickets.

Backing #15 Haaracaine

R7- A no bet race for me here. The champ Mr Brightside should be too good, but I can’t take $1.60.

Atishu backs up from last Saturday where he was a pass mark and will be hardest to beat, I like him better at Flemington though.

Coco Sun, is one to watch, she is headed for the Caulfield Cup and will need to show something here to be a chance in that race.

Deny Knowledge is a good horse who can fill a minor placing.

No Bet 

R8- The emerging superstar Broadsiding will go out as one of the shortest priced runners in a Caulfield Guineas and will justify that support. I am hoping the market takes a bit of a set against him and we get a better price than the $1.55 currently on offer.

Angel Capital has been very good in his 2 runs back from a spell, if there is a chink in Broadsiding’s armour, then this fella might be the upset horse.

Evaporate has obvious ability ion winning his past 4 starts although this is a steeper mountain to climb.

The Waller trained Private Life is a nice horse, although he needs to improve substantially to trouble the fave.

Backing #1 Broadsiding at $1.70 or better

R9- The Kiwi filly Bellatrix Star has been a revelation this Spring and with no weight and her turn of foot, I think she gets plenty in her favour to beat her more fancies rivals. The Walker camp are flying, she gets a cushy draw and the race map suits.

Start Patrol is a horse that has produced some scintillating wins in his career, he has an excellent first up record, and if he’s right will be hard to beat.

Mornington Glory has been outstanding this prep, the concern with him is his record at Caulfield, if he can overcome that then he will be thereabouts.

Recommendation was only fair in a hot rave at the Valley last start, this is slightly easier, and he flies at Caulfield.

Backing #9 Bellatrix Star

R10- We close out a great days racing with the time-honoured Toorak Handicap, one of the great Group 1-mile races on the Australasian racing calendar.

I’ve settled on another exciting Kiwi here in the shape of Orchestral. This mare is no stranger to an Aussie assault and has performed admirably when visiting prior. She is 2 from 2 at this trip, is drawn perfectly for her racing pattern and is unbeaten 2^nd up. At the $12 available she is a fabulous bet.

Another Wil is the obvious danger, he has a 70%-win strike rate, is 3 from 3 at the track and 3 from 5 at the distance. The only negative is, if he gets buried from barrier 1. He’s a super horse though and can peel off amazing sectionals.

Desert Lightning was super last start and is in rare form, he should be in the finish.

Osipenko has some ‘X-Factor’, the Waller polish and a history of competing against the very best, he shouldn’t be forgotten also.

Backing #6 Orchestral

R1-8xx,13,1 improver,11

R2-3,4….1,12

R3-12gv,9,6,2 rough chance

R4-14x,9,7,1

R5-14x,7,9,2

R6-15xxx best/day…8,3,12

R7-1,5,8,6

R8-1xx,4,3,11

R9-9gv,6,2,3

R10-6xx,4,1,12

R1-8

R6-15 Best of the Day

R8-1

R10-6

R3-12 Best value play

R5-14

R9-9

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 9.4

ROI -0.6%

Best of luck if you’re playing.