Mad Mike’s Melbourne Preview and Tips – Flemington May 18th

Race 1: 1400M

Starting the day with a nice field of winter 2 year olds.

Of those raced I have them marked 8 to beat 10 with a gap to 1 and 2.

Several unraced also and 9 is the best of those.

I’m back 8 and saving on 10.

Race 2: 1800M

A typical winter middle distance event, most with plenty of exposed form.

The horse with most scope is the Waller trained import Mirzann (11), six starts for 2 wins and 4 second placings. Beautifully bred son of Camelot and I see him winning better races than this. I have him priced a fair bit shorter than what is currently on offer.

Its danger is the stablemate Pervade (1) who is unbeaten at its 4^th run in.

Only other hopes are 9 and 5.

Good bet 11 and something on 1 to make it a winner also.

Race 3: 1200M (straight)

A very open race for the females.

Not a race I am over enthused about.

Wakenjeja (8) is a nice horse although barrier 2 puts a big question mark over it.

I have them marked – 8, 7, 9, 2, with low confidence.

Small play 8 if I bet.

Race 4: 1400M

Narrowed this down to 3 main hopes – Modown (2), Flying Fizz (8) and A Book Of Days (12)

Very little between them, with a slight leaning to Modown.

3, 4, 7 and 13 for the exotics.

Playing the quinellas and trifectas around 2,8,12 for 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd with 3,4,7,and 13 for 3^rd also.

Race 5: 1100M (straight)

I like Sisterhood (11) here, goes great first up, gets Lane on, and finds a suitable race to kick off its prep.

Danger is Losesomewinmore (10) who is racing in great heart in Adelaide and the stable have a very good record when bringing them over.

Others to entertain for exotics are 13, 16, 1 and 6 which has a fluker’s hope and the $71 currently on offer is way overs.

Backing 11

Race 6: 2000M

3 year olds with many getting to 2000M for the first time.

Cotton Tree (6) is a lightly races Shamus Award gelding who will relish the rise in distance and the Price/Kent stable is on fire at present.

Heed the Omens (4) for Waller/Lane is the obvious danger and Aztec State (1) who has won at the trip next best.

A watchful eye on 10 and 14 with the 15 capable of vast improvement being bred for the trip and in a great yard.

Backing 6

Race 7: 1200M (straight)

Steparty (6) stands out clearly here with the only reservation being barrier 1. That said they may all head to the centre of the track and he will just follow them out there and be too good.

Joyful Fortune (1) goes in 2^nd here, very lightly raced (10 start, 7yo) who has had his share of issues and is a classy animal when at his best. Track conditions and the straight run will assist greatly.

It’sourtime (4) and Pintoff (5) are also chances.

Backing 6 and will be on 1 to make it a winner also.

Race 8: 2800M

If The Map (12) has come through its easy win in SA a fortnight ago in good stead then it should account for this average lot.

Imported gelding Lionel (9) is 2^nd pick and looks like he will run the distance right out.

Rough hopes to 11, 6 and 1 in that order.

Backing 12 and saving 9.

Always hard to get overly involved in these staying races.

Race 9: 1600M

Green Fly (15) lived up to early promise last start and I expect him to go on with it here.

The Waller horse Wineglass Bay (14) is my next pick, and he is currently way over the odds at $26. I expect him improve dramatically 2^nd up.

Packing Waltham (10) is another out of the market (currently $17) that I think will take great benefit from his first up run and it his best would beat these.

Other hopes are 2 and 13.

I’m backing 15, 14 and 10 for good results.

Race 10: 1100M (straight)

A good race to finish with some lovely progressive horses.

I’ve got Prinzero (5) on top here, goes well 1^st up albeit he was just off some far better class horses earlier in his career. Jumped out well recently and I think they have him primed here.

Harry Got Styles (12) went like a jet in a recent jumpout and is my 2^nd pick.

Shesallshenanigans (1) is very well in with the 3kg claim.

Unconquerable (11) is hard to line up and if the money comes for it then don’t be dismissive. Could be a very serious horse.

Backing 5 and 12 and very watchful with 11.

Summary

R1 – 8x,10…1,2…9??

R2 – 11xx,1….9,5

R3 – 8,7,9,2

R4 – (2,8,12)….3,4,7,13

R5 – 11xx, 10..13,16,1,6

R6 – 6xx,4,1….10,14,15

R7 – 6xx,1…4,5

R8 – (12x,9)..11,6,1

R9 – (15,14,10)….2,13

R10 – (9x,12)..1,11??? huge query

Good luck