AFL PREVIEWS ROUND 24

The final round of the 2024 home and away season kicks off at the MCG as Melbourne take on Collingwood. Both sides come into the contest fresh off wins in Round 23, defeating Gold Coast and Brisbane respectively, with the latter coming from the clouds to come away with a stirring victory at home. Melbourne were much better against the Suns last week, ending a four game losing streak but it’s done little to help their finals chances as they gear up for a year without finals action for the first time since 2020. However, they have been busy preparing for the future, tying down Max Gawn and Jack Viney to new deals but there’s still conjecture surrounding the future of Christian Petracca, while Ben Brown announced his retirement. Meanwhile, Collingwood’s incredible come-from-behind victory over Brisbane boosted their chances of playing finals for only a day, as Carlton, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn won on Sunday, meaning they will need a miracle to keep their premiership defence alive. The Magpies will need to win big against Melbourne, rely on Port Adelaide knocking off Fremantle and St Kilda defeating Carlton by a huge margin to steal eighth. In fact, they will need to overturn a 200-point gap between themselves and Carlton to ensure their percentage (100.1%)  even comes close to beating the Blues’ (110.7%). Craig McRae’s side won the reverse fixture earlier this year on King’s Birthday by 38 points. 

TIP: Collingwood by 25 points, Nick Daicos 30+ disposals

Geelong will look to wrap up a top four place this weekend, when they host West Coast at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Cats suffered a shock defeat against St Kilda last week, surrendering a 33 point lead to go down by five goals at Marvel Stadium. Geelong – with a percentage of 107.7% – now sit in fourth and can secure a place in the four by quite simply defeating West Coast, but could still claim second or third if they win by enough to overturn GWS or Port Adelaide’s percentage (111.7% and 114.2%), plus one of them falling to defeat this weekend against the Western Bulldogs or Fremantle. However, an unlikely defeat at home to the 16th placed Eagles will see them in danger of falling out of the top four and potentially as low as eighth, with only four points separating them from the eighth-placed Blues and all the sides below them having a better percentage at this moment. West Coast missed a golden opportunity to play spoiler for the sides in the race for finals football, when they went down to an injury-hit Carlton at home on Sunday evening. The Eagles haven’t beaten Geelong at Kardinia Park since all the way back in 2006 and will need to produce a stunning turnaround from their performance last week to knock-off the Cats, especially with star key defenders Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass both missing through injury.

TIP: Geelong by 50 points, Jeremy Cameron to kick multiple goals

Damien Hardwick returns home to finish his first season as Gold Coast Suns coach when he takes on his former side Richmond at the MCG. The Suns failed to back up their stirring win over Essendon a week earlier with a disappointing loss to Melbourne at home, as they stare down the barrel of another year without finals football. They have the chance to end the year on a high-note by recording an 11th win of the season, which will be the most wins they’ve recorded in a single season in their club’s history. Richmond, on the other hand, look set to claim their first wooden spoon since 2007 and could be farewelling a host of players this Saturday with Premiership winning quartet Shai Bolton, Jack Graham, Liam Baker and Daniel Rioli all linked with moves away this off-season, along with retiring duo Dustin Martin and Dylan Grimes – who both won’t feature on Saturday. Gold Coast won the reverse fixture earlier this year, starting this season with a 39 point victory over the Tigers in Opening Round.

TIP: Gold Coast by 20 points, Mac Andrew to kick multiple goals

Hawthorn are one win away from locking in their place in the top eight and potentially, a home final, as they gear up to face North Melbourne this Saturday in Launceston. The Hawks continued their sensational run of form with a 63 point victory over Richmond on Sunday, taking them within four points of fourth-placed Geelong and two points behind fifth-placed Brisbane after both sides suffered defeat last round. A win will secure a first finals appearance since 2018 and depending on results elsewhere, could mean they scale as high as fourth on the ladder if the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Brisbane all lose. Sam Mitchell’s side will be without star midfielder Will Day, but could regain Changkuoth Jiath after missing the last fortnight with calf tightness. North – led by former Hawks boss Alastair Clarkson – will be looking to play spoiler this weekend, but come into the contest fresh off a 96 point defeat against fellow finals contender the Western Bulldogs. If Clarkson is able to mastermind a win away in the Apple Isle, then the Hawks will be waiting nervously on results elsewhere to see if they will be in action come September. However, the Kangaroos haven’t beaten Hawthorn in their last five meetings, which included the Hawks’ first win of the season back in Round 6. Incredibly, Hawthorn were 0-5 heading into that contest at Marvel Stadium and have gone 13-4 since then.

TIP: Hawthorn by 45 points, Jai Newcombe to get 25+ disposals

What’s happened to Brisbane? For the second-straight week, Brisbane surrendered a five-goal advantage en route to defeat, as Collingwood came from the clouds to defeat the Lions at the MCG last week. The loss saw the Lions miss a golden opportunity to climb back into the top four, particularly after Geelong went down later that night to St Kilda. It left Brisbane relying on an unlikely West Coast win and a victory over Essendon to secure a top four berth, but a win over the Bombers this Saturday will at least secure a home Elimination Final. However, a defeat to Brad Scott’s side would make things quite sticky for the Lions. Should Brisbane lose, they would be staring down the barrel of an Elimination Final in Victoria with the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton sitting only two points behind, but should only one of the three aforementioned sides win, then they should still have a home final. They could still technically miss the eight if a slew of results go against them, including Fremantle overturning a 135 point gap in order to overturn their huge percentage differential (121.6% to 113.7%). Essendon – on the other hand – have lost their last two games as well, going down against both Gold Coast and Sydney at home to end their finals hopes and also, extend their wait for a finals win to 20 years. Dyson Heppell will play in a farewell match this week, while Brisbane may be forced into one change after Jarrod Berry was subbed out last with a hamstring injury. 

TIP: Brisbane by 40 points, Joe Daniher to kick multiple goals

Sydney can officially secure the minor Premiership on Saturday night when they host Adelaide at the SCG. The Swans backed up their comeback victory over Collingwood, with a resounding 39 point win over Essendon to all but wrap up top spot heading into the first week of finals. Even if the Swans lose, their vastly superior percentage (126.3%) to both Port Adelaide (114.2%) and GWS (111.7%), means it’s highly unlikely that they would drop from top spot. It will be fascinating to see whether John Longmire opts to bring Chad Warner back into the side after he missed with a minor calf issue, or opts to go down a conservative route with him and any other sore troops. Adelaide, on the other hand, went down by 22 points to the Power in the Showdown last week and will finish the season in 15th spot on the ladder. The Crows could welcome back Taylor Walker for this weekend’s contest, but will be without star Izak Rankine through concussion. The Swans have a great recent record against Adelaide, winning each of the last five meetings including a 42 point victory at Adelaide Oval earlier this season.

TIP: Sydney by 45 points, Isaac Heeney to get 25+ disposals

Super Sunday gets underway in Ballarat as the Western Bulldogs host GWS in a match filled with huge finals stakes. The Bulldogs returned to winning ways with a resounding 96 point victory over North Melbourne, but still needs another four points to lock in their finals place. A win over the Giants would also keep their hopes of finishing fourth alive as they have a superior percentage to Brisbane and Geelong, but will need Essendon and West Coast to cause upset victories on the road. At worst, a win will secure a home Elimination Final for Luke Beveridge’s side, but a loss leaves them with a very nervous wait on the results of Carlton and Fremantle’s matches later that day, if Hawthorn also handle business against North on Saturday. However, the job won’t be easy against the Giants, who have won their last seven matches and are looking to secure a home Qualifying Final after defeating Fremantle last week to lock-in a top four berth. GWS will need to win and rely on Fremantle beating Port Adelaide if they are to finish in second-spot, but could drop to fourth if they don’t handle business against the Bulldogs. Adam Kingsley will be forced into at least one change, with Lachie Ash suspended for this weekend’s contest, while it’s unlikely the Bulldogs will regain Tim English from injury.

TIP: Western Bulldogs by five points, Sam Darcy to kick multiple goals

Carlton are once again in control of their finals destiny, but face a stern test in the form of St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. The Blues went into Perth last week without a slate of star players, but came away with the four points against West Coast to revive their season. Patrick Cripps led from the front brilliantly, while Brodie Kemp, George Hewett and Matthew Kennedy all put together strong showings. The win has left Carlton in eighth on the ladder – after Fremantle also went down against GWS – heading into this weekend, but the job is far from done for Michael Voss’ side who are all too familiar with the stakes heading into this week, having faced a similar scenario in 2022. A win will lock in a finals berth, and they could still technically finish as high as fourth if Geelong, Brisbane, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs all lose, but the more likely outcome would be potentially hosting an Elimination Final. However, a loss to the Saints, opens the door for Fremantle to jump them on the ladder if they beat Port Adelaide later that day, or potentially Collingwood if a miraculous turn in percentage occurs. They could still lose and make the eight if the Hawks also lose against North Melbourne, but by a few more points as Hawthorn currently have a superior percentage by 1.1%. There will be a huge watch on the injury front for the Blues this week, with Mitch McGovern and Corey Durdin joining a 19-player strong injury list. However, a host of players are a chance to feature this weekend, with McGovern, Durdin, Charlie Curnow, Orazio Fantasia, Adam Saad and Caleb Marchbank all needing to pass a fitness test. Their opponents this weekend, the Saints, are determined to play spoiler. St Kilda have already hurt Geelong’s hopes of hosting a Qualifying Final by beating the Cats by 18 points last week and now, have the chance to cause more chaos with a win at Marvel Stadium. 

TIP: St Kilda by 11 points, Jack Higgins to kick multiple goals

The shape of the top eight could come down to the final game of the home and away season, when Fremantle take on Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium. Freo’s finals hopes have taken a huge hit over the last three weeks, suffering back-to-back-to-back defeats and as a result, falling out of the top eight heading into this weekend’s clash. Justin Longmuir’s side have lost each of the three matches by 12 points or less, showcasing the fine margins between making or missing the final eight. Their chances of playing finals football could be over before the ball is bounced on Sunday evening, as they need to rely on one of Carlton, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs or Brisbane (by a huge margin) to lose earlier in the round. A loss for one of the aforementioned trio, and a win over the Power would lock Freo into the top eight. They could still host an Elimination Final if two of the Blues, Hawks or Bulldogs lose. The Dockers will be without gun forward Josh Treacy (knee) yet again, while Sean Darcy’s status is still unknown for this weekend as he looks to overcome a knee injury of his own. Meanwhile, there’s huge stakes for Port, who may need to win to lock in a home Qualifying Final. Ken Hinkley’s side are currently in second after five straight wins, but could be in third or fourth before the first bounce depending on how GWS and Geelong fare against the Western Bulldogs and West Coast. Port could regain key forward duo Mitch Georgiades and Todd Marshall this week, but will be without Dan Houston after he copped a five-game ban for his bump on Izak Rankine in last week’s Showdown.

TIP: Fremantle by four points, Caleb Serong to have 25+ disposals