AFL Finals Week 1

The 2024 AFL finals series kicks off in the City of Churches as Port Adelaide hosts Geelong at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night in a Qualifying Final. Port heads into the finals in red-hot form, having won their last six matches and eight of their last nine games to secure the second spot and an all-important home final. Ken Hinkley’s side played spoiler for Fremantle in the season’s final round by ending their finals hopes with a solid 20-point win at Optus Stadium. The Power have an excellent record in home Qualifying Finals in years gone by, having won their last two at Adelaide Oval against Geelong on both occasions in 2020 and 2021. However, their biggest issue has been their form after the first week of finals, falling short of a Grand Final in each of Ken Hinkley’s 12 seasons at the helm. Their opponents, Geelong, locked in a top-four berth with a resounding 93-point win over West Coast and have won four of their last five matches heading into finals. Port should regain Todd Marshall from concussion symptoms but will be without Kane Farrell (hamstring) and Dan Houston (suspension), while the Cats will welcome back Sam De Koning (knee). However, Tom Hawkins (foot) and Cameron Guthrie (Achilles) will return via the VFL. The Power won the only meeting between the two sides this season with an incredible six-point win at GMHBA Stadium.

TIP: Port Adelaide by 10 points, Jason Horne-Francis 25+ disposals

Two of the league’s form sides head to head in a do-or-die Elimination Final on Friday night when the Western Bulldogs take on Hawthorn at the MCG. Both sides wrapped up places in the finals in the last round of the season after wins over GWS and North Melbourne, respectively, completing an incredible turnaround from their poor starts to the season. The Bulldogs’ ace up the sleeve is their brilliant attack, with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton all set to spearhead their front half, while Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore are in superb form in the middle. Luke Beveridge’s side are no stranger to making a run from outside the top four, having won the 2016 Premiership from seventh and making the 2021 Grand Final from fifth, and their form as of late would have them feeling as if the sky’s the limit going into September. Conversely, the Hawks have been one of the season’s stories, turning around their 0-5 start to play finals for the first time since 2018. Hawthorn’s more minor defence will have a tall task to stop their attack, but the Hawks’ relentless pressure and speed could cause plenty of headaches for the Bulldogs, especially if they get on a roll. The Bulldogs are set to regain Rhylee West (jaw), with Laithan Vandermeer (hamstring) potentially under an injury cloud. Meanwhile, Hawthorn will be without Will Day (collarbone) for another week and could regain Changkuoth Jiath (calf). The two sides met once this year at Marvel Stadium, with Hawthorn coming away seven-point victors back in Round 8, but a lot has changed for both sides in the months since.

TIP: Western Bulldogs by five points, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan multiple goals

The 29th Sydney Derby will see Sydney and GWS battle it out for a place in the Preliminary Finals when they lock horns at the SCG on Saturday afternoon. The Swans and Giants have been two of the form sides all year, with the former leading from start to finish in first place before wrapping it up in the final fortnight with three consecutive wins. Sydney turned things around in the final three weeks after a lean patch of form, defeating Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide to secure the minor Premiership and will likely bolstered by four key inclusions. Isaac Heeney and Tom McCartin rested for the final game against the Crows, while Tom Papley (ankle) and Justin McInerney (knee) have a big chance to return, barring they pass fitness tests. The Giants, meanwhile, suffered a final-round defeat against the Bulldogs but had recorded seven consecutive wins in the weeks before locking up a top-four berth. GWS could make as many as five changes this week, with Brent Daniels (back), Toby Bedford (calf), Jake Riccardi (finger), Isaac Cumming (hamstring) and Lachie Ash (suspension) all in the mix to return. Adam Kingsley’s side lost both matches against the Swans this year by 29 and 27 points, respectively, but have a good record against Sydney in finals matches, having won all three prior meetings in September. 

TIP: Sydney by 10 points, Isaac Heeney 25+ disposals

Week one finals action wraps up in the Sunshine State on Saturday night as Brisbane hosts Carlton in a do-or-die Elimination Final at the Gabba. The Lions secured a home final with a win over Essendon in the season’s last round. They recorded a much-needed victory after consecutive defeats against GWS and Collingwood, ending their hopes of a top-four finish. Brisbane’s defence is set to be boosted with the return of Brandon Starcevich (hamstring), while Jack Payne (foot) has a solid chance to feature after limited minutes in the VFL. These are timely inclusions for the Lions, who take on a Carlton side that is set to welcome back up to eight players for this weekend’s final. The Blues scraped into finals football after Fremantle failed to capitalise on Carlton’s heartbreaking loss against St Kilda in the final round to miss out on securing an eighth spot. However, Michael Voss could welcome back a litany of stars, including key forward duo Charlie Curnow (ankle) and Harry McKay (quad), Zac Williams (hamstring), Mitch McGovern (hamstring) and Sam Docherty (knee) – with the latter returning only six months after tearing his ACL against the same opponent during Opening Round. Tom De Koning (foot), Jack Martin (hamstring) and Adam Cerra (hamstring) also have a chance to return. Carlton won the only meeting between the two sides this season, coming back from 46 points down to defeat the Lions by a point at the Gabba. Brisbane did, however, win the last finals meeting, beating the Blues by 16 points in last year’s Preliminary Final.

TIP: Brisbane by 20 points, Lachie Neale 25+ disposals